الاستدلال السببي في البحوث التربوية: تحليل السببية في الدراسات الرصدية المستعرضة
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30827/relieve.v29i2.26843الكلمات المفتاحية:
التحليل السببي، المنهجية الإحصائية، التقييم تحليل البياناتالملخص
يعد افتراض العلاقات بين السبب والنتيجة في الأبحاث بأثر رجعي مشكلة معروفة على نطاق واسع في مجال منهجية البحث في العلوم الاجتماعية. ولمعالجة هذا القيد المهم, انتشر في السنوات الأخيرة استخدام تقنيات الاستدلال السببي, وهي مجموعة من الإجراءات الإحصائية التي تم وضعها لتكون قادرة على استخلاص استنتاجات سببية في البحوث غير التجريبية. وعلى الرغم من شعبيتها وانتشارها الواسع في مجال العلوم الاجتماعية والصحية, إلا أن استخدامها في البحوث التربوية لا يزال هامشيًا. وبالتالي, يقدم هذا العمل تقنيات الاستدلال السببي الرئيسية المتاحة للباحث التربوي عند توفر بيانات لوحة المراقبة. بعد معالجة الخصائص الرئيسية وإمكانات مطابقة درجات الميل, والمتغيرات الآلية, وتقنيات تصميم الانحدار المتقطع, يتم تقديم مثال لتطبيق كل منها باستخدام قواعد البيانات التي تم الحصول عليها في تقييم PISA2018.تم تضمين الكفاءة الرياضية كمتغير تابع في جميع النماذج المقترحة.وبالنظر إلى الخصائص المختلفة لكل من هذه التقنيات, فإن المتغير المستقل المستخدم يختلف في النماذج الثلاثة المطبقة: الحضور في التعليم في مرحلة الطفولة المبكرة في مطابقة درجات الميل, والتوقعات الأكاديمية للطلاب في المتغيرات المفيدة والحجمللبلدية التي تقع فيها المدرسة في تصميم تراجعي متقطع.ويختتم المقال بمناقشة إمكانات هذه المجموعة من التقنيات, مع الأخذ في الاعتبار الاحتياجات والإجراءات المنهجية الأكثر شيوعًا في البحث التربوي
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