Towards an armed global bipolarity? The keys and risks of the war in Ukraine and the paths to peace

Abstract

This article explains how and why the armed conflict that began in Ukraine in February 2022 is marking a turning point in the slow but inexorable decline of the global order and international relations characteristic of the post-Cold War. Its immediate consequences are being made as unpredictable just a few months before, such as the joining of Sweden and Finland to NATO, the split between the EU and Russia, the rearmament of the West and the rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing to set up a potentially formidable common front.

This work also explains that, in the war in Ukraine there is a clash of  parallel interested policies, defence doctrines and political and journalistic narratives in the West, Russia and Ukraine that have been creating the long-term conditions for a conflict with very serious global consequences. The article also analyses the historical evolution and internal dynamics of Ukraine as an actor in its own right, not just as a passive subject of US and Russian interests. Finally, this work to propose some alternatives to conflict management that from the perspective of peace research that are more rational, efficient and consistent with human rights.