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Abstract
For a mathematical model to be a suitable representation of a dynarnical phenomenom in Nature, it must inc1ude its random characteristics as well as the time variable. After reviewing alternative procedures in model formulation, this paper presents a methodology for elaborating a predictive stochastic model from sample observations depending upon the time, on the basis of the Principal Component Analysis of the studied stochastic process. The developed model is then applied to forecast the AIDS incidence rate in European countries.
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