Cartography of the probability of inundation of the andalusian coast by the end of the 21st century
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Abstract
The aim of this work is to evaluate the probability of inundation caused by sea level rise for the entire Andalusian coast using a digital elevation model with a spatial resolution of 5 meters and the registers of the local tide gauges located on this coast . The applied methodology involves spatializing the mean sea level rise probability on each cell of the study area, relating the different models of cumulative probability of sea level rise and the altitude of each cell, obtaining a p value that indicates the probability of being exceeded by the future high water. The results show that it is likely that large areas of the Andalusian coast will be flooded by the end of the 21st century. The identified differences in the results for the four scenarios show that the analysis performed is highly dependent on the chosen scenario.