Degradation and deforestation in the Conchos river basin (Mexico): predictive modeling through logistic regression (1985-2016)
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Abstract
In this work, the pine, oak and mixed forest areas, with the highest probability of being degraded-deforested, were identified in the Conchos river basin (Chihuahua-Durango, Mexico). Degraded-deforested of pine, oak and mixed forest areas were calculated from 1985-2016 through map algebra (Inventory of land uses and vegetation series I and VI). Subsequently, the logistic regression technique was applied considering eight physical and socioeconomic variables possibly associated with the loss / degradation of the forest. A pseudo R2 value of 0.204 was obtained, which indicates high predictive power of the model. An area of 733.43 km2 was identified at risk of being deforested / degraded in the future, representing 6.7% of the forest area currently existing in the basin. The variables with the greatest specific weight in deforestation / forest degradation were, in descending order: marginalization, mining concessions and land tenure. The results are helpful to prevent the loss / degradation of pine-oak forests in the basin, and facilitate its environmental management.