Factores explicativos de estabilidad y cambio de voto al PSOE en las elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía 2015-2018

Abstract

The results of the 2018 Andalusian Parliament elections led to a political cycle change in the region, which had been governed by the PSOE without alternation since 1982. This article aims to analyze the explanatory factors of stability and change of vote to the PSOE between the regional elections of Andalusia in 2015 and 2018. A quantitative approach is offered to the socio-demographic profile of the faithful socialist voter in both elections and analyzes the psycho-political and contextual factors of permanence that favor this behavior. Finally, the elements that influence the change of vote for socialist formation in 2018 are explored. The analysis shows a permanence of the left-wing Andalusian socialist voter’s ideological preferences and the demobilization of a sector of the potential electorate of the party motivated by circumstantial elements.