Comparación de las variables físicas que influyen en la rápida intensificación de los ciclones tropicales del Océano Pacífico nororiental durante el periodo 1970-2018

Abstract

The study of the rapid intensification process of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) is a current, yet lacking research topic in Mexico, where thermal and dynamic factors at the microscale and mesoscale fundamentally intervene. Due to the little improvement in the TC intensity, forecasting models and the importance of understanding and predicting their evolution, an investigation was undertaken of the factors that influence the process of rapid intensification, and in general, the intensification of TCs in the Mexican Pacific Ocean, specifically in the western zone that includes states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima and north of Michoacán.

The parameters studied were, sea surface temperature (SST), mixing layer depth (MLD), as well as, wind shear (WS). Through a selection process of TCs that met the definition of Rapid Intensification (RI), the aforementioned parameters were processed and analyzed, which allowed identification of the threshold values that favor the rapid intensification process. The anomalies of + 7,6 % in SST and + 57 % in MLD stand out. Although the wind shear values were not low, a dominance in the thermal factors SST and MLD was observed during the RI process.