Spatial analysis of risk of morbidity and mortality by COVID-19 in Europe and the Mediterranean in the year 2020

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30827/cuadgeo.v60i1.15492

Keywords:

COVID-19, disease spatial risk, Europe, Mediterranean, disease clusters, morbidity, mortality

Abstract

Disease mapping seeks to represent the risk of a disease. This paper focuses on the spatial analysis of risk for pandemic COVID-19 in Europe and the Mediterranean. Morbidity and mortality data for 54 countries in ratio format were used. Two hypotheses were considered, the first one is that the data are homogeneous and the second one is that the ratios are defined in a heterogeneous manner requiring the stratification on the basis of covariables and the methodology of Jenks’ intervals. Spatial risk models were applied as well as methods for the representation of clusters. The results show that the best representation is obtained with the Poisson-Gamma Model under stratification. The variations in the ratios are due to the individual policies of each country for the management of the pandemic. The cluster analysis shows that there is a high mortality process in Eastern Europe. The behavior of the pandemic should be evaluated in the space-time process as well as in other heterogeneous and highly unequal regions.

 

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Author Biographies

  • Jesús Enrique Andrades-Grassi, University of the Andes, University of Los Andes, Universidad de Los Andes
    Profesor, Departamento de Ordenación de Cuencas, Escuela de Ingeniería Forestal, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Ambientales
  • Ledyz Cuesta-Herrera, Catholic University of the Maule
    Estudiante de Doctorado, Doctorado de Modelamiento Matemático, Facultad de Ciencias Básicas
  • Guillermo Bianchi-Pérez, University of the Andes, University of Los Andes, Universidad de Los Andes
    Profesor, Departamento de Biología, Facultad de Ciencias
  • Hilda Cristina Grassi, University of the Andes, University of Los Andes, Universidad de Los Andes
    Profesor, Sección Biotecnología, Instituto de Investigaciones, Facultad de Farmacia y Bioanálisis
  • Juan Ygnacio López-Hernández, University of the Andes, University of Los Andes, Universidad de Los Andes
    Profesor, Departamento de Ordenación de Cuencas, Escula de Ingeniería Forestal, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Ambientales
  • Hugo Torres-Mantilla, Universidad de Santander, University of Santander
    Profesor, Departamento de Matemáticas-Física, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Naturales y Agropecuarias

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Published

2020-10-27

Issue

Vol. 60 No. 1 (2021): Turistificación, sobre-turismo y transformaciones urbanas. Debates sobre la especialización turística y sus consecuencia

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Copyright (c) 2020 Jesús Enrique Andrades-Grassi, Ledyz Cuesta-Herrera, Guillermo Bianchi-Pérez, Hilda Cristina Grassi, Juan Ygnacio López-Hernández, Hugo Torres-Mantilla

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How to Cite

Spatial analysis of risk of morbidity and mortality by COVID-19 in Europe and the Mediterranean in the year 2020. (2020). Cuadernos Geográficos, 60(1), 279-294. https://doi.org/10.30827/cuadgeo.v60i1.15492