Evolución de la aridez en Andalucía: análisis espaciotemporal de los últimos 30 años y proyecciones futuras bajo escenarios de cambio climático

José Antonio Sillero Medina; Julián Molina; José Damián Ruiz-Sinoga

doi:10.30827/cuadgeo.v65i1.34266

Autores/as

José Antonio Sillero Medina Dpto. Geografía, Instituto de Hábitat, Territorio y Digitalización (IHTD-UMA), Universidad de Málaga, Málaga https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7856-3239
Julián Molina Dpto. Economía Aplicada (Matemáticas), Instituto de Hábitat, Territorio y Digitalización (IHTD-UMA), Universidad de Málaga, Málaga
José Damián Ruiz-Sinoga Dpto. Geografía, Instituto de Hábitat, Territorio y Digitalización (IHTD-UMA), Universidad de Málaga

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30827/cuadgeo.v65i1.34266

Palabras clave:

índice de aridez, cambio climático, Andalucía, Mediterráneo, proyecciones climáticas

Resumen

Este estudio analiza la evolución de la aridez en Andalucía durante los últimos 30 años y proyecta su comportamiento futuro bajo distintos escenarios de cambio climático. A partir del Índice de Aridez del PNUMA y datos de 302 estaciones meteorológicas, se observa una clara tendencia hacia condiciones más áridas, con una expansión significativa de las zonas semiáridas, que en el periodo 2020–2024 alcanzan el 70,2   % del territorio andaluz. El análisis estadístico mediante el coeficiente tau de Kendall identifica a la cuenca mediterránea andaluza como la región con mayor intensificación de la aridez de Andalucía. Así, las proyecciones climáticas para los años 2050 y 2100, especialmente bajo el escenario de altas emisiones SSP5-8.5, prevén un notable agravamiento de las condiciones de aridez, lo que plantea desafíos territoriales significativos, particularmente en lo que respecta a la gestión sostenible de los recursos hídricos.

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