Cambios en la temperatura del aire y las precipitaciones en la región costera de Siria (gobernación de Lattakia) de 1970 a 2016

Ala A M Salameh, Riad Qara Fallah


Este estudio tiene como objetivo analizar los cambios en los promedios anuales y estacionales de la temperatura del aire y las precipitaciones en la gobernación de Lattakia durante 1970-2016. Las tendencias anuales y estacionales para la temperatura y la precipitación se calcularon utilizando la prueba no paramétrica de Mann-Kendall. Las diferencias de medias entre los dos períodos (1970-2000) / (2001-2016) se evaluaron en los niveles anuales y estacionales mediante el uso de la prueba no paramétrica de Mann-Whitney U. Además, la aparición de valores extremadamente altos / bajos se analizó a nivel anual mediante el uso de la curva de distribución normal.

El estudio encontró que los promedios anuales de temperatura aumentaron significativamente (p <0.05) en 0.22 ˚C / década y 0.17 ˚C \ década, en las estaciones de Lattakia y Hiffeh, respectivamente, durante 1970-2016. El verano reveló tendencias fuertes y significativas al alza (a nivel 0.01) en sus promedios de temperatura en 0.39 ˚C / década en Lattakia, y en 0.34 ˚C / década en Hiffeh. El promedio de precipitaciones de primavera disminuyó significativamente en -6.5 mm / década en Lattakia y en -12.1 mm / década en Hiffeh. La probabilidad de la aparición del valor de 20.2 ˚C o más como valor extremo aumentó en la estación de Lattakia durante 2001-2016 en un 40.8%.

Palabras clave

Siria; Prueba Mann-Kendall; Temperatura; Precipitación


Abu-Allaban, M.; Abu Sada, A.; Al-Malabeh, Ahmad (2015). “Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Climate Change at Northern Jordanian Badia”. Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, 7, 87-93.

ACSAD (Arab Center for the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands) (2011). Drought Vulnerability in the Arab Region (Case Study- Drought in Syria, Ten Years of Scarce Water (2000-2010). 15-16.

Alexander, L. V.; X. Zhang, T. C.; Peterson, J.; Caesar, B.; Gleason, A. M. G.; Klein Tank, M.; Haylock, D.; Collins, B.; Trewin, F.; Rahimzadeh, A.; Tagipour, K.; Rupa Kumar, J.; Revadekar, G.; Griffiths, L.; Vincent, D. B.; Stephenson, J.; Burn, E.; Aguilar, M.; Brunet, M.; Taylor, M.; New, P.; Zhai, M.; Rusticucci, J. L. (2006). “Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation”. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D05109.

Alexandersson, H. (1986). “A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data”. Journal of Climate, 6, 661-675.

Al-Qinna, M.I.; N.A., Hammouri; M., Obeidat; F., Ahmad (2011). “Drought analysis in Jordan under current and future climates”. Climatic Change, 106, 421-440.

AlSarmi, S.; R., Washington (2011). “Recent observed climate change over the Arabian Peninsula”. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, D11109.

Alvera, A.; Barth, M.; Beckers, R.; H., Weisberg (2007). “Multivariate reconstruction of missing data in sea surface temperature, chlorophyll, and wind satellite fields”. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, C03008.

Athar, H. (2014). “Trends in observed extreme climate indices in Saudi Arabia during 1979–2008”. International Journal of Climatololy, 34: 1561-1574.

Black, E. (2009). “The impact of climate change on daily precipitation statistics in Jordan and Israel”. Atmospheric Science Letters, 10, 192-200.

Cafiero, Carlo (2009). Study on Supply and Demand Prospects for the Major Syrian Agricultural Products. Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform (NAPC). 8-9.

Conrad, V.; Pollak, C. (1950). Methods in Climatology. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

Dabour, Nabil (2006). “Water Resources and their use in Agriculture in Arab Countries”. Journal of Economic Cooperation, 27.1, 1-38.

El Kenawy, A.; López, I.; Stepanek, P.; Vicente, M. (2013). “An assessment of the role of homogenization protocol in the performance of daily temperature series and trends: application to northeastern Spain”. International Journal of Climatololy 33: 87-108.

El-Ashry, Mohamad; Saab, Najib; Zeitoon, Bashar (2010). Arab Environment Water (Sustainable Management of a Scarce Resource). Report of The Arab Forum for Environment and Development, 32-33.

Erian, W.; Abbashar, A.; Abo-Swaireh, L. (2011). Drought Vulnerability in the Arab Region - Case Study Drought in Syria; Ten Years of Scarce Water (2000 – 2010). ACSAD, Damascus, 15-18.

Freiwan, M.; Kadioǧlu, M. (2008). “Climate variability in Jordan”. International Journal of Climatololy International Journal of Climatololy, 28: 69-89.

Harmel, R.; Richardson, C.; Hanson, C.; Johnson, G. (2002). “Evaluating the adequacy of simulating maximum and minimum daily air temperature with the normal distribution”. J. Appl. Meteorol., 41, 744-753.

Hasanean, M.; Abdel Basset, H. (2006). “Variability of Summer Temperature over Egypt”. Int. J. Climatol., 26: 1619-1634.

Hassanean, H. (2004). “Wintertime surface temperature in Egypt in relation to the associated atmospheric circulation”. International Journal of Climatololy, 24, 985-999.

Hawkins, D. (1980). Identification of Outliers, Chapman and Hall.

Hunt, G. (2007), “Climatic outliers”. International Journal of Climatololy, 27, 139-156.

IPCC, (2013). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

IPCC, (2007). Adaptation and Vulnerability. Fourth Assessment report: Working group II report. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

J., Lelieveld; P., Hadjinicolaou; E., Kostopoulou; J., Chenoweth; M., El Maayar; C., Giannakopoulos; C., Hannides; M., Lange; M., Tanarhte; E., Tyrlis; E., Xoplaki (2012). “Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East”. Climate change, 114(3-4), 667–687.

Jarque, M.; A., Bera (1987). “A test for normality of observations and regression residuals”. International Statistical Review, 55(2), 163-172.

Javari, M. (2017). “Spatial variability of rainfall trends in Iran”. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 10, 78.

Kaniewskia, D.; Van Campo., E.; Weissc., H. (2012). “Drought is a recurring challenge in the Middle East”. Environmental Sciences, 1-6.

Kelley, Colin P.; Mohtadi, Cane; Mark, Seager; Richard, Yochanan (2015). “Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought”. CrossMark, 112, 3241-3246.

Kenawy, Ahmed; Vicente, Sergio; López-Moreno, I. (2009). “Temperature trends in Libya over the second half of the 20th century”. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 98(1), 1-8.

Kendall, G. (1975). Rank correlation methods. London: Charles Griffin.

Kharel Kafle, Hemu; J. Bruins, Hendrik (2009). “Climatic trends in Israel 1970–2002: warmer and increasing aridity inland”. Climatic Change, 96:63-77.

Lilliefors, W. (1967). “On the Komogorov‐Smirnov test for normality with mean and variance unknown”. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 62, 399-402.

Mann, B. (1945). “Non-parametric tests against trend”. Econometrical, 13, 245-259.

Mann, B.; Whitney, R. (1947). “On a test of whether one of two random variables are stochastically larger than the other”. The Annals of Mathemathical Statistics, 18(1), 50-60.

Shifa, M.; Lopez-Bustins, J.A.; Martin-Vide, J.; Becha, J.;Rodrigo, F. (2018). “Spatial and temporal analysis of drought variability at several time scales in Syria during 1961–2012”. Atmospheric Research, 153-168.

Osborne, W.; Overbay, A. (2004). “The power of outliers (and why researchers should always check for them)”. Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, 9(6). 1531-7714.

Peterson, C.; Vose, R.; Schmoyer, R.; Razuvaëv, V. (1998). “Global historical climatology network (GHCN) quality control of monthly temperature data”. International Journal of Climatololy, 18: 1169-1179.

Pettitt, N. (1979). “A non-parametric approach to the change-point detection”. Applied Statistics, 28: 126-135.

Posio, Jani; Kauko, Leiviskä; Jari, Ruuska; Paavo, Ruha (2008). “Outlier Detection for 2D Temperature Data of Automatic Control Seoul, Korea”. 17th IFAC World Congress (IFAC’08), 10.3182/20080706-5-KR-1001.0628, 1958.

Rehman, S. (2010), “Temperature and rainfall variation over Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, 1970–2006”. International Journal of Climatololy, 30: 445-449.

Sen, K. (1968), “Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall’s Tau”. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63, 1379-1389.

Simone, Stefan (2011). Adapting to climate change in the water sector in the Mediterranean: situation and prospects. Plan Bleu, UN Environment.

Syria Meteorological Department. [January 2017].

Syrian Central Bureau of Statistics. [January 2017].

Texto completo: PDF (English)


Licencia de Creative Commons Esta obra está bajo una licencia de Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial 3.0 Unported.

ISSN 0210-5462 | E-ISSN 2340-0129 | DEPÓSITO LEGAL GR./392/1971